GLOBAL WARMING COULD CRUSH WINE INDUSTRY

By any measure, California wines rank among the best in the world. But a 2-degree rise in temperature could make Napa Valley chardonnay a thing of the past.

A couple more degrees and Napa would no longer be prime territory for wine of any kind. And warmer grape growing regions such as the Livermore valley could be knocked out of the premium wine game entirely.

"It's clear that there's the potential for really substantial problems, and almost certainly going to be some change," said John Williams, owner and winemaker at Frog's Leap Winery in Napa Valley.

Among the issues Williams could face are warmer winters that hinder bud development, changes in rainfall patterns and increasing pressure from pests that thrive in hotter weather. But uncertainty about the timing and severity of those challenges makes it hard to plan.

"YOU CAN'T PREPARE FOR IT," HE SAID.

Although grapes may feel the heat first, they won't be alone. Many of the state's signature crops -- avocados, oranges, almonds -- will face serious declines in yield by midcentury, according to computer models that project climate changes.

Agriculture is the industry whose fate is most closely linked to climate, and California is by far the biggest agricultural producer in the country. In a warming world, California's agricultural riches are among the most vulnerable in the country, so farmers and economists are starting to pay attention to the prospect of climate change.

The state grows more than half of the nation's fruits, nuts and vegetables and is virtually the sole source of more than a dozen crops, including nectarines, raisins, artichokes and olives.

No other state comes close. According to the most recent agricultural census, in 2002, the No. 2 state, Texas, did not bring in even half of the $26 billion grossed by California farmers and ranchers.

Other states may escape relatively unscathed, and some studies show that the uptick in temperature and longer growing season predicted by climate models could actually be a boon to agriculture in the northernmost states..

But California's climate is already close to ideal for many of the fruits and vegetables for which it is famous, and even the most optimistic predictions show California on the losing end of the warming stick.

"At the current crop mix that we have, we're pretty much at the optimum, so changing that would push us over the peak of that curve," said economist Olivier Deschenes of UC Santa Barbara.

In a study forthcoming in the American Economic Review, DeschÆnes and Michael Greenstone of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimated the economic impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture by analyzing how random year-to-year variations in temperature and precipitation affected profits in the past. They then used a climate model to project those effects into the future..

They calculated that global warming will result in a 4 percent, or $1.3 billion, increase in agricultural profits for the country during the next century. But those gains were not evenly spread, and California may see an annual loss of 15 percent, or $750 million, by the end of the century..

One of the biggest reasons for this is the state's precarious water situation..

Unlike the eastern half of the United States, California's agriculture is largely dependent on irrigation. About 90 percent of California's crops are produced on irrigated land..

Some climate models project the state will get more rain during the growing season, but this increase will be far outweighed by a decrease in winter snow..

California doesn't have sufficient reservoir capacity to sustain agricultural water needs through the dry season, so storing water as Sierra snowpack is critical. A good snowpack ensures water will be available in the summer and fall when irrigation demand is still high and reserves from rainwater are low..

Currently, 80 percent of water used in the state goes to agriculture. With reductions in snowpack estimated from 30 percent to 90 percent by 2100, agriculture could take a big hit depending on how dwindling water resources are allocated among cities, farmers and the environment..

"I cannot emphasize enough how critical a factor that is for California's agriculture," said ecologist Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University. "It doesn't matter how fast or slow a plant can potentially grow. In California, if you don't give it sufficient irrigation water, it's not viable as a crop."

To make matters worse, the bulk of the state's agricultural profits come from perennial plants that live for 30 years or more and are not easily or inexpensively swapped for more heat- or drought-resistant crops, or moved to cooler locations.

Climate scientist David Lobell of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory led a study published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology in November that used past yields of six of the state's most lucrative perennial crops to calculate the potential impact of future warming predicted by more than 20 different climate models. Five of the six crops suffered significant yield losses by midcentury in nearly all of the models.

"It's not good news," Lobell said. "I was a little surprised at how unlikely it is for climate change to have no effect or a positive effect. Even the most conservative models show some decline."

Avocados, grown mostly in Ventura and San Diego counties, could see yields drop as much as 40 percent. The Central Valley's almonds and walnuts and the San Joaquin and Coachella valleys' oranges and table grapes could decline as much as 20 percent.

One potential mitigating factor that Lobell's study did not take into account is the positive effect that higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide can have on plant growth.

Plants use carbon dioxide during photosynthesis to convert solar energy into plant material and fuel. Early research suggested that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would substantially increase plant growth. But more recent research has shown a much smaller benefit, on the order of a 10 percent to 20 percent increase in growth by the end of the century with twice as much carbon dioxide as was in the atmosphere before people began producing industrial greenhouse gases.

"If the negative impact of climate was 10 (percent) to 20 percent, it's possible that it would come out in the wash, that they would more or less even each other out," Field said. "But if the impact of climate is really substantial, such that you can't grow crop 'A' in place 'B,' then it doesn't really matter that in some places crop 'A' was growing 10 percent better.".

FARMERS GET SQUEEZED

Some California crops are already feeling the heat.

Farmers in the middle of the country may be able to adapt fairly quickly to rising temperatures by switching to more heat-tolerant crops. But California won't be nearly as agile..

Much of the state's agriculture involves long-lived plants such as grape vines and avocado, peach and nectarine trees. It can take as many as eight or 10 years for some of these plants to mature and begin bearing a full load of fruit. So switching to warmer-weather fruit such as oranges or lemons is no small endeavor.

"That's a huge difference between California agriculture and everywhere else," Field said. "We're overwhelmingly dependent on perennial crops. It means across all our crops, we are automatically more vulnerable to climate change."

This could prove to be a major problem for farmers such as Len Delchiaro who can't afford to uproot his 70 acres of cherry trees in Brentwood and wait six or seven years with no income before a new set of trees begins to bear fruit.

The biggest threat to Delchiaro's orchard is a decline in "chill hours," or hours below 45 degrees. Cherry trees need from 900 to 1,200 chill hours during which they go dormant, a process that enables normal bud and blossom development. Any temperature spikes above 65 or 70 degrees during the winter can also adversely affect dormancy.

Warmer winters, particularly a rise in nighttime low temperatures, have caused Delchiaro's trees to blossom several weeks late and weakened the buds so that they can't hold on to the fruit.

"When you don't have enough chill, you may have a good blossom, but the tree's not strong enough to sustain the fruit," he said. "So then you have a large drop-off where you lose immature fruit."

Delchiaro, who has been farming cherries in Brentwood for more than three decades, has seen his crop yields drop from 60 percent to 70 percent the past two years..

Years with too few chill hours are a normal part of a naturally fluctuating climate, and Delchiaro is happy with a cold winter so far this year, but he believes warmer winters have been more common in recent years

"It's been more noticeable over the last five or 10 years we're getting less and less chill," he said, noting that urban encroachment could also be a factor.

With the cost of labor increasing, crop yields declining and the price of cherries static, farmers like Delchiaro are getting squeezed.

"WE'RE KIND OF IN A VISE," HE SAID..

Still, he plans to hang in there with his cherries. "It's just something that we know. We're geared to it," said the 56-year-old farmer. "I'm at a point in my life where I don't want to have to wait seven, eight years to change."

A rise in average temperatures isn't the only problem farmers may face in a warmer California. Brief bouts with extreme weather such as heat waves or sustained heavy rains can cause serious problems for some crops. And climate models suggest that extreme weather could become increasingly common as temperatures climb.

Farmer Ruth Hartnett has been growing a variety of fruits and nuts and raising various livestock on nine acres of Grand Island in the Sacramento River near Rio Vista. This summer's heat wave claimed three of Hartnett's turkeys, and has her pondering a warmer future in which extremes become the norm. She says many farmers in her area have been struggling with the unusual weather, causing some of them to rethink their crop choices as they brace for more of the same.

This year at least three pear orchards in Hartnett's neighborhood were plowed under to make way for hardier crops such as citrus fruits or, in one case, a housing development.

"The weather has gotten so strange, and crops are so unreliable, especially when it comes to fruit, that these farmers just bulldozed their orchards," she said.

Some farmers, including Hartnett, are convinced that global warming is at least partly to blame for the peculiar weather. Although some are biting the bullet and switching crops, others are contemplating quitting the business altogether, and a few are thinking of relocating.

"If we're going to get this kind of heat in this area, there are farmers who are seriously considering moving north. Maybe Canada, maybe Alaska," said Hartnett.

For now, Hartnett is considering somewhat less-drastic steps such as replacing a few pear trees with citrus trees, but she counts herself among those who could be persuaded to hit the road..

"We seem to be at a tipping point. People are looking toward economic survival," she said "The undercurrent is, 'How do I not lose my shirt and everything I've ever worked for?'"

WINES ON THE MOVE

Many crops will be affected, but the state's prized wine industry may be the proverbial canary in the coal mine when it comes to climate change. Grapes, particularly those used for premium wines, require a delicate balance of climatic conditions..

"Wine grapes are especially vulnerable because they have a sensitive temperature range in which they can grow," said Stanford University ecologist Kim Nicholas Cahill, who studies the effects of extreme heat on grapes.

Although wine grapes might not suffer major declines in yield, quality rather than quantity is the issue with this crop.

Too hot, and grapes may ripen too quickly and produce flabby wines with too little acid and too much alcohol. Too cold, and a wine's character will tend toward less desirable green flavors such as grass or bell pepper.

The Napa Valley region is blessed with a 64 degree average temperature that falls smack in the middle of the comfort zones of many popular varietals, including merlot, syrah and cabernet sauvignon..

But Napa just barely tags the range for chardonnay grapes, which thrive in 57 to 63 degree temperatures. A small bump up in the average growing season temperature, even just 1 degree, could push Napa into questionable territory for chardonnay.

Of course, this same small bump in temperature would nudge the valley closer to the ideal climate for zinfandel grapes. But a few more degrees could be a disaster for Napa. And some of the state's warmer wine-growing regions, such as Santa Barbara and Paso Robles, might be lost altogether.

"You add another couple of degrees onto warming in Fresno, and it will become real challenging to grow anything other than table grapes or raisins because you can't produce premium high-quality wine in that hot of a climate without technology we really don't have today," said climatologist Gregory Jones of Southern Oregon University in Ashland.

Jones is part of a team that used a computer climate model to look at the future of the U.S. wine industry in a warming world -- and it is bleak.

According to the study, published in July in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 60 percent of the best terrain for premium grapes will be lost by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. And the picture is particularly grim for California, currently responsible for 90 percent of the country's wine grape production.

Most of the remaining top-quality acreage will shift northward to the Pacific Northwest. California will retain and possibly gain a little bit of territory along the coast, but the inland vineyards, including those in Napa Valley and Sonoma County, will be lost.

"There's a tremendous amount of culture and value that's associated with the wine industry where it is," Field said. "It would be a heavy price to pay if we had to move out of there.

"If all of a sudden, Mendocino County becomes a better place to grow wine, even if you are producing the exact same wine there, it's not a hundred percent clear that the value will transfer immediately. It may take the world's wine community anywhere from months to decades to learn that now the wines associated with a certain quality are coming from some other place."

Williams at Frog's Leap Winery knows some growers who are hedging their bets by buying property in cooler areas with an eye to growing wine grapes there in the future.

A narrow band along the northern Central coast may maintain a good climate for wine, and farther north the coast could warm up enough to become suitable. But problems with high humidity and excess precipitation will persist along the coast. And climate projections don't take into account the "terroir," or character of the earth; even if an area gains a climate appropriate for wine grapes, it may never produce premium wines.

If carbon emissions continue unabated, the statewide annual temperature could go up 10 degrees. That's roughly equivalent to the difference in average annual temperature between Oakland and Los Angeles.

But if emissions are curbed significantly, the rise could be kept to around 3 degrees. That's something that wine growers might be able to handle by changing their vine-management practices, Cahill said.

The temperatures that the grapes on the vine actually experience can be changed quite a bit by controlling how much leaf cover they have. Many growers in Napa trim the leaves back to give their grapes more direct sunlight, which in turn produces bolder wines, said Terry Hall, communications director for the Napa Valley Vintners.

Currently, growers often thin out clusters of chardonnay grapes to keep them cooler, Hall said, and this practice could be used on other varietals as well if temperatures rise.

"I've seen a lot of interesting innovations in management. People do have some capacity to adapt," said Cahill. "But at the higher end of the (possible) temperature increase, business as usual will definitely be much less possible."

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AUSTRALIA'S DROUGHT MAY CUT WINE VINTAGE BY HALF

Australia's drought could cut the 2008 wine grape vintage by more than half, industry groups said on Monday, cutting into a A$3 billion ($2.6 billion) a year export business and possibly forcing hundreds of winemakers out of business.

The 2008 vintage is likely to fall to between 800,000 tones and 1.3 million tones, compared with a normal seasonal crop of about 1.9 million tones, according to Wine Grape Growers and Winemakers' Federation of Australia.

"Some growers will not be able to recover, and some vineyards will be lost as a result of the drought," said Mark McKenzie, executive director of another industry group, Wine Grape Growers' Australia.

"We think some 800 growers are in immediate financial peril, with up to 1,000 at risk over time. They are broke," McKenzie said. Australia has some 7,500 grape growers.

In some regions that depend heavily on irrigation water from the Murray Darling river system, in the southeast of the country, water allocations are as low as 10-16 percent of normal allocations, the two industry groups said.

The falling vintage comes after a glut that forced prices to rock-bottom levels and produced a spate of retail stores across Australia selling unlabelled cheap and bulk wine.

"It compounds what is already an extremely difficult financial situation, where prices may go up but growers will not be able to take advantage of that because of the reduced crop," McKenzie said.

Australia's wine exports totaled A$3 billion in the year to July, according to the Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation. The United Kingdom and the United States are the largest markets with about A$972-A$974 million of sales each.

Australian scientists have predicted global warming will force wholesale changes to Australia's A$4.8 billion wine industry, threatening the existence of some varieties with temperatures in most wine regions projected to rise by up to 1.7 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2030.

Earlier on Monday, broker JP Morgan slashed its earnings forecast for winemaker McGuigan Simeon Wines Ltd by 142 percent as a result of a smaller 2008 wine grape crop.

The broker now sees the company reporting an operating net loss of A$1.1 million from a previous estimate of a profit of A$2.5 million.

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AUSTRALIAN WINE INDUSTRY FEELS HEAT FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

PINOT IMPOSSIBLE IN BURGUNDY OVER NEXT 50 YEARS

The world is going to heat to such an extent that Burgundy may no longer be able to grow Pinot Noir, a conference heard last week.

Wine character as we know it today is on the verge of radical change, world experts on global warming and vines told the first World Conference on Global Warming and Wine held in Barcelona on March 24-25.

According to authoritative computer climate models, over the next 50 years Bordeaux is set to rise by 1.2C, Napa by 1.2C, Barolo 1.4C, Rioja, where water is already an issue, by 1.3C, Portugal – which is already up 2.9C over the last 50 years - by 2C. The list of 50 locations had been compiled from global research presented by climatologist Gregory Jones from Southern Oregon University.

Led by Bernard Seguin, a global bioclimatologist based at France's national agricultural institute (INRA) in Avignon, scientists defined other regions where temperatures are already near top of the range for the grape varieties that over the past centuries of viticulture have been found to work best there. Drought is also a growing problem.

These include Penedes and La Mancha in Spain, Chianti and Southern Italy, Southern France, Hunter Valley in Australia, parts of Chile and the Central Valley of California.

Southern Hemisphere temperatures in vineyards in New Zealand, southern Australia, parts of Chile and South Africa will rise more slowly due to more water, and less land mass.

The changes in temperature will have a variety of effects on viticulture. Some reds may lose color, some wines will lose varietal flavor, some whites may disappear, said renowned Australian viticulturalist Richard Smart. 'The effect will be profound,' he said.

Smart also drew attention to the dangers of vine infestation as temperatures rose, particularly in the case of the glassy-winged sharpshooter, which spreads the fatal Pierce's Disease, and the aphid hyalestes obsoletus, which spreads a phytoplasma disease called Bois Noir. Higher temperatures mean both insects will be able to survive winters and move further. Hyalestes Obsoletus has recently been found in German vines.

The point was made that while it might seem almost trivial to draw attention to the dangers of global warming to the wine industry when so many staple crops were threatened, the vine's extreme sensitivity to climate made it 'the most direct and striking example of global warming' as Seguin put it.

The conference called on governments to take heed of the warning signals and to invest in grapevine breeding programmes to find varieties that will work in hotter temperatures, as well as improved irrigation systems, Greg Jones said.

Above all, the there are no certainties except for the fact of global warming. While we are not sure of the effects of hotter temperatures we know it will have a profound effect on vines.

Jones pointed out that 'although the changes are only a few degrees centigrade, that is all that exists at the moment between the regions.'

Taking the Mean July Temperature of various regions he showed how their viticultural character would change if you add 2degreesC.

Santa Maria, with a MJT of 17.3C would become Napa, at 19.3, St Helena at 21.7C would become Stockton at 23.5C, Healdsburg would become Modesto, and Fresno, Bakersfield.

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WINE IN THE TIME of GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming is no laughing matter

Moreover, despite former U.S. Vice President Al Gore’s reference to global warming as an “inconvenient truth,” according to scientists throughout the world, the truth can no longer be ignored and it most definitely will hurt us.

The earth is indeed getting warmer and the issue of global warming, or, more correctly, climate change, has been brought to the forefront of the public’s attention. Numerous governmental agencies and researchers have published reports on the crisis, making the message difficult to disregard. The scientific projections are dire and threaten to negatively impact the planet as we know it. The wine industry is not immune and several serious consequences are predicted for the wine regions of the world, as climate change jeopardizes their ability to grow quality fruit.

CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH and PROJECTIONS

As they say, there is nothing new under the sun. In this case, it might be interpreted quite literally. Historically, climate change isn’t novel; the Earth’s climate has changed dramatically before as evidenced by reports of thriving English vineyards back in the 1200s (Weise 2006). The difference is that the change is no longer a natural phenomenon. Rather, today’s change in average temperature is primarily linked to human activities, which have resulted in an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably CO2 (IPCC 2001). More specifically, since 1970, carbon emissions have risen 30% over pre-industrial revolution levels, due to the combustion of fossil fuels, along with changes in land use and the release of aerosols into the environment (Pew 2004). Generally, scientists have found that average temperature increased 1oF over the past 100 years (IPCC 2001).

Looking ahead, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s most recent projections predict a shift between 2oC and 4.5oC, with an average global daily temperature rise of 3oC by 2100 (Warren 2006). These newer predictions are more precise than their previous forecast of 1.4 oC - 5.8oC, but are still substantial (IPCC). Data from Jones et.al. show the Bordeaux and Napa Valley regions each increasing by 1.2oC and Portugal increasing as much as 2oC over the next 50 years (2005a). Expectations include hotter summers for Europe and North Africa, along with altered patterns of rainfall (Gilby 2006).

Scientists advise that if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized to 400 parts per million, some of the temperature increase can be avoided (Warren 2006). In fact, the IPCC forecast notes that the rise could be held to 2oC, if greenhouse gases remained at current levels (ibid). However, studies have found that proposed efforts to reduce in greenhouse gases would likely result in a fall in real wages (ibid). Yet, even remaining at current emissions will have an impact. Field, et.al. specifically measured the effect of climate change on California and looked at both best (current level emissions) and worst (quadrupled emissions) scenarios (Fox 2004). Even in the best case, Field expected a fourfold increase in the frequency of heat waves and extreme heat in places such as Los Angeles, with mortality figures increased double to triple the number seen today (ibid).

IMPACT ON THE WINE INDUSTRY

While these temperature changes seem small, their affect on the viticultural industry will be significant. Grapes are particularly sensitive to heat and need to stay within a narrow temperature band to produce quality fruit. Thus, as explained by Bernard Seguin, “‘One degree increase in temperature is very important’” (Voss 2006). Moreover, Jones contends that, “…climate arguably exerts the most profound effect on the ability of a region or site to produce quality grapes and, therefore, wine” (2005a). Consequently, discussions of impact have centered on quality as “…even tiny changes can be the difference between a $200 Cabernet Sauvignon and cooking sherry” (Weise 2006).

According to Jones’ study, all regions are experiencing growing season warming (2005b). For some regions, the initial changes have been helpful. Cooler climates, such as the Mosel and Rhine regions, have benefited from the increased temperature, with vintages improving with warmer weather (Just-drinks 2003). In concert, Ashfelter and Storchmann expect the value of Mosel Valley vineyards to increase 20-50% over the next several decades as the temperature rises 1-3oC (Holzer 2006). Excellent vintages in Bordeaux and Champagne have been other indicators of this positive outcome (Weise 2006).

Conversely, warmer climates have suffered from the additional heat, which has been especially true for areas currently at the high end of the spectrum for growing conditions such as La Mancha; Central Valley, CA; and southern France (Buckley 2006). Many wines from these warmer areas have shown an imbalance in alcohol and acidity (Just-drinks 2003). There is also concern regarding changes in flavor profile, along with imbalances in tannins, sugars and aromas, which will ultimately impact style and wine quality (Gilby 2006).

Richard Smart expects a loss of color in red wines and of varietal flavor (Buckley 2006). Similarly, Hans Schultz has predicted an impact on flavor development, due to the combination of increased solar radiation and temperature (2000). Already, in the Napa Valley, the average alcohol level has increased from 12.5% in the 1970s to 14.8% in 2001 (Rademakers 2006). Also, a reduction in the ageing potential for wines made from these stressed vines is likely, further impacting quality (Gilby 2006). Equally important, CO2 increases might alter the texture of oak wood, thus changing the character of wines aged in barrel (Jones 2005b).

Consequently, White et.al. warn that the grape growing industries in Napa, Sonoma and Santa Barbara may not exist in the future, predicting that as much as 81% of California acreage will be rendered unsuitable for premium grape growing as climate change continues (2006). Overall, White suggests that as the area of production contracts and shifts, a change to higher yields of low quality will ultimately produce lower-quality and lower-priced wines, with the highest-quality, highest-priced wines declining greater than 50% (ibid). Furthermore, declines in these premium regions may also negatively impact local culture and tourism (Teague 2006).

Another growing problem is drought, which reduced the 2005 harvest for the Torres wine company in Spain (Kakaviatos 2006). Predictably, there is anxiety regarding the availability of water (Voss 2006). With temperatures increasing more in the coldest areas than in warmer ones, stress on the polar ice caps is calculated to reduce the Sierra snow pack by 30-70%, which could “fundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system” (Fox 2004). In Australia, there is concern that the mainland would receive lower rainfall (Warren 2006). Not surprisingly, it has been suggested that water may be the next “investment frontier” (Voss 2006).

The resultant warmer winters and early arrival of spring can also be problematic, especially if a hard frost follows early spring budding (Voss 2006). Further, there is a real danger of vine infestation, particularly from Glassy Winged Sharpshooters, which spread Pierce’s Disease, and the pest hyalestes obsoletus, which is responsible for Bois Noir (Furer 2006). These vine diseases already pose a threat, but with milder winters, insects are living longer and migrating farther distances, thus, increasing both the perimeter of affected areas and the population of insects available to perpetuate disease (Buckley 2006).

RESPONSE OF THE WINE INDUSTRY

Given the evidence, climate change clearly must be addressed. Individual growers can and have modified their viticultural practices to adapt to the changing conditions. In Spain, Miguel Torres has begun using irrigation, which wasn’t done ten years ago (Kakaviatos 2006). Similarly, a Napa Valley grower admitted that irrigation was now a common part of his daily practice (Goldfarb 2006). However, in addition to the expense of such systems, the ability to irrigate may be curtailed by the rise of salinity in freshwater (Furer 2006).

Other viticultural proposals have included a switch in trellis systems to those that shelter the grapes from the intense heat, as well as using date palms to provide additional shade (Goldfarb 2006). Likely, vinification practices may change as well, with a need for more frequent acidification and less use of malolactic fermentation. As Europe continues to get warmer, it will have to reconsider “tradition-bound rules against irrigation” and other appellation laws to permit changes in practice. (Rademakers 2006).

The switch to different grape varieties, especially those better suited to warm weather, has also been proposed (Goldfarb 2006). Ashenfelter and Storchmann further recognize the need to breed more heat-resistant grapes, which has not yet been undertaken (Holzer 2006). Likewise, speakers at the World Conference on Global Warming proffered two solutions: to invest in grapevine breeding programs and in improved irrigation systems (Buckley 2006).

Unable to stand the heat in hotter regions, some producers are getting out, making the decision to buy land elsewhere. Specifically, Miguel Torres has begun to head north in search of land in cooler regions (Kakaviatos 2006). It would seem he is not alone. As Richard Smart suggests, “For wineries, it will boil down to real estate issues…The smart ones will move quickly and buy cheap” (Voss 2006). Among areas to explore, it is expected that places such as Maine and Northern Europe, which were previously too cold to successfully ripen grapes, will emerge (Walker 2006). In Southern England, the total acreage of vineyards has increased considerably and areas for quality Australian Cabernet Sauvignon have been moving south (Rademakers 2006).

Facing the future, vineyard owners will need to examine key decisions and their financial consequences. Costs associated with replanting new varieties will be significant; but buying new land and replanting will be even greater. Moreover, individual growers may have less capital available to make such purchases and take on risks and could be reluctant to uproot themselves and their families. But, those who wait may find changes in land value to their detriment. Reinterpreting Ashfelter and Storchmann’s vineyard valuations, it is likely that the value of premium vineyards will depreciate if they can no longer produce quality fruit. Thus, some may find that they can’t sell their land at the high price they paid for it. Finally, research programs on irrigation methods and breeding heat-resistant grapes must be undertaken, but funding for these programs is more liable to come from large corporations and institutions since individual growers can’t afford these efforts on their own. Overall, multinational drinks companies would seem to be in a better position than individuals to make the major changes required such as divesting of existing properties and investing in new land, new technology and new plantings.

CONCLUSION and PERSONAL COMMENTARY

Research clearly indicates trouble ahead for all of Earth’s inhabitants, with far-reaching repercussions that will impact life on the planet. Agriculturally-based business, including the wine industry, will be forced to respond. Unfortunately, solutions such as replanting, land purchase and viticultural research, are quite costly and may drive smaller producers out of business. Reducing the industry to multinational drinks companies may impact diversity and regional style, which are already at risk due to climate change.

There are also important implications for terroir. The expression of terroir has been linked to Europe’s stress and relief cycles as opposed to the irrigated New World (Gilby 2006). Accordingly, if there are no relief cycles, irrigation use expands or both, this expression may no longer exist. Furthermore, as growers seek to move to cooler areas, the temperatures may be more hospitable, but other climatic elements and soil types may ultimately affect the quality of the wine. Moreover, while adaptation comes more easily for New World wine regions, it may be harder for Old World regions to respond appropriately with changes to their viticultural laws.

Finally, it is imperative that climate change be viewed through a wider lens. Manipulating vines or grape varieties to adapt to the changes ignores the larger problem. Solutions that seek to reduce emissions, and thus mitigate those affects, should be considered, despite their immediate economic impact.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Appenzeller, Tim and Dimick, Dennis R. “Signs from the Earth.” National Geographic Magazine, September 2004.

Furer, David. “Why the Wine Industry Should Care About Global Warming.” Wine Business Monthly, July 2006.

“Global Warming a Threat to Wine Industry. Wines and Vines. September 15, 2004.

Goldfarb, Alan. “Global Warming Turns Up the Heat in Napa Valley Vineyards.” AppellationAmerica. August 9, 2006.

Holzer, Jessica. “Wine Warming.” Forbes. August 11, 2006.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers.” 2001.

Jones, Gregory. “How Hot Is Too Hot?” Wine Business Monthly, February 2005.

Kay, Jane. “Scientists fear that rising temperatures.” San Francisco Chronicle, July 11, 2006.

Montaigne, Fen. “EcoSigns: No Room to Run.” National Geographic Magazine. September 2004.

Pew Center on Global Climate Change. “Understanding the Causes of Global climate Change.” Fact Sheet 1: Attribution, 2004.

Schultz, Hans R. “Climate change and viticulture: A European perspective on climatology, carbon dixdie and UV-B effects.” Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research. Volume 6, number 1, 2000.

Warren, Matthew. “Science tempers fears on climate change.” The Australian. September 2, 2006.

Weise, Elizabeth. “Wine regions feel the heat.” USA Today. June 1, 2006.

White, Michael A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Jones, G.V., Pal, J.S. and Giorgi, F. “Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(30), 11217-11222, 2006.

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WINERIES PREPARE FOR GLOBAL WARMING

"Global warming is on everyone's radar," says viticulturist Franci Ashton of her colleagues in California's winegrowing industry. Small wonder: The quality and taste of wine depend utterly on the soil and climate conditions in which the grapes are grown—a concept known as terroir.

Scientists predict that global warming will bring higher temperatures, more heat waves and less precipitation, changes that could transform the state's $15 billion wine industry. (Wine Institute, 2004)

For example, Ashton's employer, Etude Wines, is known for its pinot noir—a notoriously difficult-to-grow varietal made famous by the movie Sideways. The pinots produced by Etude and other winemakers depend on the climate of Napa and Sonoma's famed Carneros region. It lies just north of San Francisco Bay and benefits from its moderating ocean breezes.

Eventually, says Ashton, places where pinot and chardonnay are currently grown may no longer work because the cool climate they require may no longer exist.

WATER SHORTAGES ON THE HORIZON?

Water has an enormous impact on grape cultivation, and changes to the water supply are a likely consequence of global warming. Water is high on the mind of David Graves, co-founder of Saintsbury Vineyards, which is developing a plan to use recycled water from sanitation districts for its irrigation.

"One of the big problems that might present itself would be volatility of water supply," says Graves. "When I read about things like the drought in the Grain Belt this year, that’s scary. If periods of drought become longer and more severe, that’s where I start to think the recycled water issue becomes a way to have a kind of insurance policy."

Ashton says she and others are also starting to consider scarce water resources. "We're looking into research that could help us become more efficient in our irrigation," says Ashton. "We’re asking 'How much water do we need to maintain our wine quality?' We're worried that our current viticultural practices may become obsolete."

Preparing for drought is a wise business choice. From 1998 to 2004, below-normal precipitation and high temperatures led to the most severe drought in the western U.S. in 80 years and one of the most severe in 500 years. Global warming is expected to bring on more frequent and severe droughts.

INNOVATIVE FARMING TECHNIQUES CUT POLLUTION

In addition to preparing for warmer climes, wineries, like all agricultural businesses, have a unique opportunity to help fight global warming by storing carbon. No-till agriculture eschews traditional practices that disrupt the soil and release its stored carbon into the air as carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is one of the key heat-trapping gases that lead to global warming. More growers are practicing no-till farming, which involves minimal soil cultivation and keeps more carbon in the ground.

"It used to be a lot more common to see clean-tilled vineyards," says Graves. "Now we have a lot of no-till."

Graves estimates the amount of non-tilled acreage has increased by a factor of 10 in Napa. The practice has many benefits. It's really good on hillsides for preventing erosion. It helps water infiltration because the roots sit in healthier, microbial-rich soils. And it naturally keeps out pests.

Fetzer Wineries, in Southern Mendicino County, uses cover crops to attain similar soil improvements. Planted between rows of grapes are red clover, daikon radishes and grasses that set nitrogen into the soil. During the dry months from June to November, the stubble left after mowing provides habitat for spiders and other predators that eat grapevine-eating critters—natural alternatives to pesticides and herbicides.

OTHER WAYS TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE

"The wine industry in itself is being pretty proactive about becoming environmentally sensitive and sustainable," says Patrick Healy, Fetzer's environmental manager. A number of wineries, including Rodney Strong and St. Francis, are embracing solar power, an optimum choice for sunny California. Fetzer has a 40-kw solar display on its administration building that powers about three-quarters of the building.

Fetzer is one of the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Leaders. That means the company is working in partnership with the government to develop long-term climate strategies. Additionally, starting in 1999, Fetzer participated in a greenhouse gas emissions study to set benchmarks for heat-trapping pollution ion the industry. To reduce its emissions, Fetzer buys green electricity and uses biodiesel in all its tractors and half its big rigs.

"We have lots of efficiency and conservation goals here," says Patrick Healy, Fetzer’s environmental manager. As a result, the company says, its electricity emissions are net zero.

In addition to the biodiesel and green energy, the winery avoids using electricity during peak demand hours. From May through usually some time in August, when the crush starts, "we turn off refrigeration between 12 and 6—that's our biggest single energy sink at the winery," says Healy, who adds, "We wouldn't do it if it threatened the quality of the wine at all."

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WINE INDUSTRY MOVES AGGRESSIVELY ON CARBON FOOTPRINT

The wine business is on a mission to gauge its emissions of greenhouse gasses as pressure builds from regulators and markets in California and worldwide to emit less of the compounds blamed for global climate change.

Agriculture as a whole is low on the list of economic sectors the California Air Resources Board is targeting initially for mandatory reporting of 2008 emissions starting next year, as part of the phase-in of Assembly Bill 32, called the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.

However, local wineries and trade groups in Australia, California, New Zealand and South Africa aren't waiting. The groups, including the San Francisco-based Wine Institute, are backing development of global industry protocols for wineries, winegrape growers and other related companies to determine their total emissions contribution, commonly called a carbon footprint, based on the World Resources Institute's International Greenhouse Gas Protocol.

The Winemakers' Federation of Australia earlier this month released draft protocols and a software tool for measuring direct and certain indirect emissions of these gasses, such as carbon dioxide largely from combustion and fermentation, methane from decomposing waste and nitrous oxide from fertilizer.

Part of the urgency for having these tools in place is not only so the California wine industry can start reducing emissions early to prepare for the emissions cap-and-trade system discussed in AB 32 implementation meetings late last year.

Under such a system, emissions for certain business sectors would be capped at a certain rate per year, so organizations that emit less can sell their allowance for the difference to a company that emits more. Who would be capped, and how the carbon credits would be traded are still unclear, according to Pat Sullivan, vice president of SCS Engineers and one of certifiers for the state-created footprint clearinghouse California Climate Action Registry. SCS has a certifier in its Santa Rosa office.

"Many have a vision about selling all these credits, but if they are in a growing industry they will need the credits," Mr. Sullivan said. "The real value is not in selling credits but in having them themselves."

The Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance has been working with the registry in aligning that group's protocols to determine how large a wine operation's footprint actually is, or how many emissions sources are considered, according to Chris Savage, director of global environmental affairs for E&J Gallo Winery and co-chairman of the Wine Institute's Environmental Working Group.

Another reason for urgency in getting out a carbon footprint calculator for the wine business is to contribute to the United Kingdom's product labeling version of AB 32, Publicly Available Specification 2050, which is set to be finalized in the next couple of months.

In what some think is a sign of what's to come in American food retailing, U.K.-based Tesco, the world's largest retailer, has started a test of printing the emissions footprint of 30 of its private-label products based on PAS 2050. Combine that with the recent move to include a list of ingredients on the label of the Bonny Doon brand, and the next step is obvious, according to John Garn of Graton-based information cartography firm ViewCraft.

"Because Tesco is a direct competitor to Whole Foods, I can assure you that in a year Whole Foods will do the same thing to be competitive," said Mr. Garn.

He was involved with the creation of the Code of Sustainable Winegrowing and consults with wineries and other companies on environmental policies.

North Coast wine companies already are being proactive in calculating their carbon footprints.

The partners of Ukiah's Mendocino Wine Co., which includes biodynamic wine booster Paul Dolan, certified the carbon footprint of their operations early last year via the California Climate Action Registry.

Part of achieving the status of having zero net carbon emissions included the installation of a $1 million solar power system, replacement of electric motors and lights, and investment in Clean Air Cool Planet-approved projects that trap carbon emissions, such as a dairy biogas facility and a forest.

Still to come is a $2.5 million additional solar power project to produce the equivalent of all the winery's needs for a year. Yet the carbon consumption value of vines is a big industry question.

"We have a mitigating factor with vineyards, and we're trying to get our hands around whether it is a mitigating factor for our carbon footprint," Mr. Dolan said.

The San Francisco-based Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance has commissioned U.C. Davis plant physiologist David Smart to spend the next few months looking at how much research has been done on carbon sequestration in vineyards. He has been studying Napa Valley vineyards to compare the amount of carbon vines themselves hold versus how much they transfer to the soil via microbes.

That information will be incorporated into the final version of the global wine industry emissions calculator, scheduled for completion late this year.

The Jackson family is preparing a major greening of their California wineries, tasting rooms, offices, other facilities and supply chain starting early this summer, according to Robert Boller, vice president of production for the Artisans & Estate boutique brand division and head of the green initiatives.

Some aspects already are under way, particularly the use of best-management practices from the Code of Sustainable Winegrowing developed a few years ago by the Wine Institute and the California Association of Winegrape Growers.

"Individually, all the operations are doing their own things now, and this is a chance to do a big thing," he said. "The owners have put big dollars against it this year."

One example is the goal of certifying all new and remodeled facilities according to the U.S. Green Building Council's Leadership in Energy Efficient Design rating system. That starts with the 7,000-square-foot tasting room for the Murphy Goode brand set to open in Healdsburg in March.

That move is part of three pilot water- and energy-efficiency programs offered by the California Public Utilities Commission and Pacific Gas & Electric Co., including a footprint calculation by Portland, Ore.-based Ecos.

The company convinced a major supplier of its tens of millions of glass wine bottles annually to switch to laser etching of bottle date stamps instead of toxic UV ink, according to Mr. Boller. The company also is persuading wholesalers, distributors and trucking companies to reduce their footprints.

At the Hess Collection, founded by early sustainable farming advocate Donald Hess, President Tom Selfridge recently appointed Operations Director John Bulleri to calculate the emissions footprint of its main Napa Valley winery in American Canyon as well as the winery and 300-acre vineyard on Mt. Veeder.

That, plus a major solar-electricity installation next year and use of goats in mowing weeds on Mt. Veeder, are part of a bid for certification under the Napa Valley Vintners trade group's Napa Green Winery program and participation in the Fish Friendly Farming program.

The California Air Resources Board will be holding its first AB 32 Agriculture Stakeholder Working Group meeting in Sacramento on Jan. 23 at 10 a.m. A webcast of the meeting will be available at http://www.calepa.ca.gov/broadcast/?BDO=1.

To access the wine industry protocol and calculator, visit http://www.wfa.org.au/environment.htm.

To contact the California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance, visit http://www.sustainablewinegrowing.org. For details on the California Climate Action Registry, visit http://www.climateregistry.org.